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Weekend Stock Market Analysis

(9/28/13)

The latest NYSE Margin Debt Level for August (not adjusted for inflation) remains at all time high.  In fact if you use a 9 Month Moving Average (red line) it's considerably higher now than it was in 2007 and in 2000.

However if we adjust the numbers in terms of real dollars the Margin Debt isn't as high as 2007 but is equal to that of 2000.   In addition applying a 9 Month Moving Average (red line) shows the Margin Debt is getting close to that of 2007.   As I have pointed out before the last two times the Margin Debt was as at an extremely high level in 2007 and 2000 significant corrections followed (points A to B).

Finally remember when Bernanke said printing money would spur on the economy and create millions of new jobs.  Well look at the graph below which plots the Employment Population Ratio (red) versus Federal Reserve Money Printing.  Since the Summer of 2008 the Federal Reserve has printed 2.6 Trillion Dollars however the Employment Population Ratio has barely risen.  This graph clearly shows there is no correlation between printing money and creating new jobs. 

 

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