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(9/21/13)
Currently the market is about as overvalued from a historical
perspective as it can get. The chart below is based on four simple
parameters. 1. % above or below the average
long term 10 Year Interest Rate.
2. % above the 5 Year Low.
3. % above or below Shiller's Mean PE Ratio.
4. % above or below the 50 Month Moving Average. As you can
see when values have reached a reading of 45 (points A) significant corrections
have followed ranging from 50% to as high as 87% in the S&P.
These occurred in 1999/2000, 1937 and back in 1929. Currently the 45 level
has been reached again this Summer (point B) so investors should be very
cautious over the next few years if past history repeats itself. 
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