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Weekend Stock Market Analysis

(11/23/13)

A unique set of conditions have been generated recently based on the following criteria.

1.  The Average 3 Week % of Bullish Advisors is >= 52%
2.  The Average 3 Week % of Bearish Advisors is <= 19%
3.  The S&P 500 is 70% above its 5 Year Low
4.  Shiller's PE Ratio is >= 18
5.  The Yield on the 10 Year Note is higher now than it was 6 Months ago.

Since the late 1960's there have only been "5" prior occurrences when all of the above conditions have occurred at the same time.  The last two events back in April of 2011 and April of 2010 were followed by corrections of -22% and -17% respectively in the S&P 500.  Meanwhile the other "3" prior events were accompanied by larger corrections ranging from -36% to -58%.      

Thus as we move into 2014, I expect we are going to see a decent correction with at least a test of the longer term upward trend line in the 1530's.   In addition the 23.6% Retrace from the March 2009 low to the recent highs would come into play in the 1530's as well which would be a 15% correction.   If you have been long in the market I would be looking to lock in profits as we move into December. 

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