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Weekend Stock Market Analysis

(5/31/14)

NYSE Margin Debt has now decreased for two months in a row after peaking in February just below 500 Billion Dollars.   The last two times Margin debt exceeded 350 Billion Dollars and then fell two months in a row was back in September of 2007 and May of 2000.  Both of these events were followed by major tops.   So the question is will a repeat of the last two events occur? 

Meanwhile the S&P 500 on a log scale has been holding support along a key upward trend line from the Fall 2011 low.  

Finally zooming in closer using a daily timeframe shows a wedge type pattern may be developing.  However it appears there are two waves missing.  If that's the case then a pullback would occur next week (d) with support along the lower trend line followed by one more high (e). 

 

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