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Weekend Stock Market Analysis

(5/17/14)

For those that follow my daily updates investor complacency remains at an extreme level as the VIX remains near the 12 level.  Meanwhile the VIX has been stuck in a trading range for the past year with resistance in the lower 20's level while support has come in near the 12 level.  Eventually the VIX will break out of this long term trading range.  Since the VIX is already at a very low level the odds would eventually favor a breakout to the upside at some point in the future. 

Meanwhile in the near term the questions is will the VIX attempt to rally back to the top of its trading range?  If it does the S&P 500 would probably retest the upward trend line (blue line) which has been in place the past year.  Currently this trend line is nearing the 1825 level.  Naturally if the VIX were to breakout of its longer term trading range to the upside then a more substantial correction would follow.  Thus we shall see how things develop over the next several weeks.      

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