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(3/14/15)
Looking at a long term chart of the S&P 500 using a log
scale we can see a narrowing upward channel. The upper part of the channel
has been acting as upside resistance since late 2013. Meanwhile in the
past 6 months the lower part of the channel has been tested twice (points
A). Currently the lower part of the channel is just above the 2000 level.
Also we can see the 125 Day MA
(green line) which has been acting as support the past few years is near the
lower end of the upward channel as well. Currently the 125 Day MA is at
2027 so this will be a key level to watch next week.
Finally for those watching the price of Oil it's back near its
previous low made in January. If it breaks below $43 then look for an eventual
drop back to the mid $30's which was where it bottomed at in early 2009.
Over the past month there has been a bounce in gas prices based
on data from Gas Buddy. However if the price of Oil does drop back to the
mid 30's I expect the average price of gas will eventually drop back to levels
seen in early 2009.
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