Signup Today for a "Free" 4 Week Trial Membership
and have access to our latest 
ETF Buy and Short Signals and 401K/TSP Timing Signals

Weekend Stock Market Analysis

(1/18/14)

Current conditions suggest the next 5 years and probably even the next 10 years will not be like the last 5 years.   For example let's look at those events when the Shiller PE Ratio was >= 22 while at the same time the S&P was 170% or more above its 5 Year Low.   Since the early 1880's there have only been "5" events as shown in the chart below highlighted in purple with the most recent one occurring in late 2013.  Notice in the prior "4" events all were followed by decent corrections (points a to b) ranging from 32% to 87%.   

Meanwhile the table below shows the Returns over a 5 and 10 Year period when the conditions mentioned above occurred.   Notice the only 5 and 10 Year period that produced a positive return was from 1902-1911.  However even during this period there were still two significant corrections 32% (1902 into 1903) and 43% (1906 through 1907).   Meanwhile the other 5 and 10 Year Returns ended up negative.      

Event	5 Year	10 Year	Maximum
Year	Return	Return	Correction
Mid 1901	5.1%	5.1%	-43%
Mid 1929	-68.3%	-54.9%	-87%
Early 1937	-45.8%	-13.8%	-60%
Mid 1999	-23.5%	-26.4%	-58%
Late 2013	?	?	?

Thus history suggests the next 5 to 10 years will not be nearly as profitable as the last 5 years and could end up with substantial negative returns.   Those investors who have invested all of their retirement savings into stocks recently are taking a huge risk in my opinion going forward especially if they plan on retiring in the next 5 to 10 years.  

Signup for a "Free 4 Week Trial Membership" or save up to 50% on a Premium Membership and you will have access to the following products.

1. "ETF Daily Buy and Short Signals" which can be used to trade the DIA's, QQQQ's and SPY's.  

2. "401K/Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Timing Service" which can be used to help improve your return in your 401k/TSP Account.

3. The "End of Month Strategy".  This Strategy focuses on the typical End of Month markup by the Institutional Money. 

Our Winter Membership Special for new Members is shown below
which are 50% Off our normal Monthly Rate of $39.95 

All Trial and Regular Memberships are on a renewal basis so please email us to cancel your Membership before it renews as they "aren't refundable".

After the Introductory Period expires Memberships will automatically renew at our normal Monthly Discounted Rate of $21.95.

 Send this Free Newsletter to a Friend or Relative

Amateur Investors