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Weekend Stock Market Analysis

(2/15/14)

The S&P 500 using a log scale has a narrowing upward channel.   The bottom of this channel was tested just over a week ago (point a) and held which has been followed by another rally.   Meanwhile the converging trend lines is leading to the formation of a large Wedge type pattern.   At this point it looks like we will see at least one more test of the upward channel which is currently in the mid 1870's.   

 

Finally keep in mind Wedge type patterns eventually have bearish implications as once they end sharp sell offs can follow.  Meanwhile another key component of a Wedge type pattern is overall volume.  Typically in a Wedge type pattern volume will continue to decrease as the market moves higher.   If we take a look at a 6 Month Moving Average of Volume in the S&P 500 you can clearly see there has been a continuous drop in overall volume as the S&P 500 has moved higher.   

 

 

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