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(12/7/13)
Historically December has been the best month for a positive return in the
market. Since 1897 the Dow has had a positive
gain 70% of the time. Thus even though the market is very overbought
any major correction will likely hold off until after the first of the year.
Meanwhile investors remain extremely complacent as the difference between the
bearish and bullish crowd has risen above 40%. The last two times this
difference rose above 40% was back in April of 2011 and October of 2007 (points
A). Both of these events were followed by significant corrections in
the S&P 500. Thus, as alluded to above, the market may hold
together through the end of the month however things may change as we move into
2014.
 A target
zone for a correction would likely be in the mid 1500's as that is where the
longer term upward trend line (black) intersects with the 23.6% Retrace from the
2009 low to the most recent high. In addition also keep in mind the
previous all time highs made in 2007 and 2000 also reside in the mid 1500's as
well.
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