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(12/20/14)
For those expecting significant downside in 2015, unless a major
world event occurs, it's likely not going to happen based on past history.
Since 1885 every year that has ended in the number "5" has had a
positive return. Overall the average return since 1885 has been 24% for
those years ending in the number "5". I have no explanation why
this trend has been in place since the 1880's.
 Meanwhile if we also factor in those years which preceded a
Presidential Election Year notice the last 5 events were accompanied by gains
ranging from 26% to 43%. However prior to 1900 the gains were considerably
less or even negative in a few cases.
Finally if we look
at a long term chart of the Inflation Adjusted S&P Composite it's currently
at the top of its longer term upward channel. I have denoted pre
Presidential Election Years ending in a "5" by an asterisk.
Notice there has only been one other occurrence when the Inflation Adjusted
S&P Composite has been at the top of its longer term channel leading up to a
pre Presidential Election Year that ends in a "5" which was at the
beginning of 1835 (point X). In 1835 the S&P Composite closed up 19%
for the year however this was then followed by a substantial correction from
1836 to 1842 (points A to B) in which it lost 75% of its value.
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