401K/TSP Timing Signals
(Updated 1/2/11)

This page gives all of the Buy and Sell Signals using our Market Timing System which focuses on the S&P 500.  We use our Mutual Fund Panic Index to time Buy Signals and then use a combination of Hussman and Hindenburg Omen  Signals to time Sell Signals.  For those that are government employees and use the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) these signals pertain to the C Fund.   We advise that when there isn't a Buy Signal to have your money in the G Fund for people who are using the TSP.

Monthly Analysis

We got a Long term Sell Signal in December of 2010 so positions were exited at the end of the month for a gain of 58% from the Long Term Buy Signal that was triggered in March of 2009.

The Long Term Primary Buy and Sell Signals are based on being fully invested in a Fund that tracks the S&P 500.  For Government Employees the C Fund tracks the S&P 500. 

Long Term Primary Buy and Sell Signals since 1960

Buy Signal Buy Sell Sell Signal %
Date Price Price Date Gain/Loss
3/2009 793.59 1257.64 12/2010 58.5%
12/2002 879.82 1455.27 7/2007 65.4%
3/1988 258.88 1120.66 7/1998 332.8%
12/1974 68.53 321.83 9/1987 369.6%
9/1970 84.21 116.03 1/1973 37.8%
9/1962 56.27 116.03 1/1973 106.2%

Total Return for the "C" Fund 2000 through 2010: -14.4% 
Long Term Strategy based on Mutual Fund Panic Index 2000-2010:  123.9% 

 

 

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