401K/TSP Timing Signals
(Updated 12/29/07)

This page gives all of the Daily Buy and Sell Signals using our Market Timing System which focuses on the SPY's which track the S&P 500.  For those that are government employees and use the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) these signals pertain to the C Fund.   We advise that when there isn't a Buy Signal to have your money in the G Fund for people who are using the TSP.

Here is a simple example on how to use our system.  The last Buy Signal in 2007 was on 12/14/07.  The changes should be made to your 401K/TSP Account the next day so that it goes in affect after the market closes.  In this example the entry price you would have got in the SPY's would have been the closing price on 12/17/07 which was $145.07.  Meanwhile once the Sell Signal Date occurs positions should be switched before the close of the next day, which in this case, would have been on 12/26/07 with a closing price of $149.59 for a gain of 3.1%.  "Remember if you are using the TSP positions must be made by 12 PM Eastern Time for the change to go in affect the next day."   

Daily Analysis

The market was very overbought so Thursday's and Friday's action wasn't that much of a surprise.  If the market continues to pullback for another day or two that may lead to a Buy Signal at some point later next week.

There is no Buy Signal for 12/31/07

The Primary Buy and Sell Signals are based on being fully invested in a Fund that tracks the S&P 500.  For Government Employees the C Fund tracks the S&P 500. 

Primary Buy and Sell Signals for 2007
Buy Signal Buy Sell Sell Signal %
Date Price Price Date Gain/Loss
12/26/06 141.54 143.24 1/12/07 1.2%
1/29/07 142.77 144.54 2/1/07 1.2%
2/12/07 144.66 145.80 2/15/07 0.8%
3/5/07 139.70 140.74 3/7/07 0.7%
6/8/07 151.04 153.07 6/15/07 1.3%
6/26/07 148.29 150.43 6/29/07 1.3%
7/30/07 147.38 145.39 8/8/07 -1.3%
11/12/07 143.70 147.67 11/13/07 2.8%
11/19/07 143.68 147.18 11/29/07 2.4%
12/17/07 145.07 149.59 12/24/07 3.1%

Total Return in 2007 for Primary Buy Signals: 13.5%
# of Winning Trades:  9
# of Losing Trades:  1 

Government C Fund Return through 12/27/07:  +4.3%
    S&P 500 Return through 12/27/07:                +4.3%

 

Total Return in 2006 for Primary Buy Signals: 22.7%
# of Winning Trades:  17
# of Losing Trades:  1
 

Government C Fund Return in 2006:  +13.6%
    S&P 500 Return in 2006:                +13.6%